The model forecasts the electricity generation capacity, the size of the Thermal Resource potential, and any eventual degression over time. The model also foresees two drilling upgrades to increase the Thermal Resource potential once the generator cannot run at full capacity anymore. The focus of the model lies in building a comprehensive Three Statement model forecast and in calculating the project’s metrics, such as IRR and Payback Period on an unlevered and levered basis. The spreadsheet template forecasts all relevant financial ratios such as e.g. Debt Service Coverage and Debt/EBITDA ratio of relevance to banks. The Excel spreadsheet template also includes a worksheet to calculate the possible returns for a developer who invests in the project and might want to sell the built geothermal plant to a buy & hold investor once the plant is built and de-risked.
The below video explains the type of financial analysis which can be performed with this Excel spreadsheet model template.
The model uses a yearly forecast over a period of 30 years and the financial model template includes the following:
- Assumption Sheet which contains all relevant assumptions such as
- General assumptions such as units, inflation rates, income tax rate, Net Working Capital assumptions, depreciation periods
- Project capacity, size of Thermal Resource, and annual degression factors
- Project Lifetime assumptions
- Pricing assumptions assuming the electricity can either be sold at market or at off-take prices.
- CAPEX assumptions for categories such as Exploration, Drilling, Land, and Plant cost. The CAPEX plan also foresees up to two drilling upgrades to increase the Thermal Resource Potential
- Uses and Sources of Funds Table
- Debt financing assumptions including Loan to Value ratios (LTV), interest rates, debt repayment schedule
- Dividend assumptions
- Operating cost assumptions
- Decommissioning costs and end of life proceeds
- Executive Summary Sheet
- Financial Summary
- Project Metrics
- Uses and Sources of Funds overview
- Developer Metrics Sheet
- Assumptions to prepare an investment case for a developer including holding period and exit valuation
- Financial Metrics for the Developer
- Financial Metrics for a future potential buyer (the party the developer will exit and sell the project to).
- Operational Model
- Project plan to plan the timing of exploration, drilling, construction, and production ramp-up plan
- Detailed forecast of capacity and thermal resource potential (including additional drillings) and annual electricity production
- Pricing forecast by taking into account the forecasted inflation rates
- Forecast of all operating costs
- Financial Forecast
- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet
- Cash Forecast
- Developer Financials
- Cash Flow forecast for up to 5 classes of investors at the developer level
- Cash Flow forecast for a future buyer
- Calculation of all financial metrics for each party
- Terms & Abbreviations sheet
- Table of Content sheet
This financial model template was specifically defined to analyze new Geothermal projects which will produce renewable energy in the form of electricity. The Excel spreadsheet template allows the analysis of a project from all different angles (operations, bank, investors, developers, future buyer), and changing the assumptions allows running different scenarios.
The Excel model spreadsheet template is available as Free PDF Preview and as a fully editable Excel version.
- Full Excel Model – .xlsx
- PDF Demo Preview – .pdf