Financial Model, Manufacturing, Recycling

Cash Flow Analysis, Cash Flow Projections, Chart, Dashboard, Debt Amortization, Debt Schedule, Debt Service Coverage, Discount Rate, Excel, Financial Analysis, Financial Debt, Financial Due Diligence, Financial Feasibility, Financial Model, Financial Modeling, Financial modelling, Financial Planning, Financial Projections, Financial Ratios, Financial Reporting, Financial Statements, Financing, Forecast, Investing Cash Flows, Investment Multiple, Investor Cash Flows, IRR (Internal Rate of Return), KPIs (Key Performance Indicators), LLCR (Loan Life Coverage Ratio), NPV (Net Present Value), Payback Period, Pro-Forma, Profitability Analysis, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), Return on Investment (ROI), Scenario Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis

Planning a tire recycling plant that produces crumb rubber, or assessing one for investors or lenders? This Excel model turns your plant assumptions into a full financial case, and it is built around the question that decides most crumb rubber projects: what feedstock you start from and who pays for it.

Why this model

A crumb rubber plant does not have one business model. A plant that takes in whole tires usually gets paid to receive them, through a tipping fee or a stewardship incentive, but needs the full shredding front end. A plant that buys tire derived fuel (TDF) chips skips the primary shredder but pays for its feedstock. A plant that buys rubber mulch needs only the final crumb line. This model treats these as three feedstock routes with their own yields, process stages, power use, wear parts, staffing, building size and capital cost. Pick a route and every sheet follows; the Routes sheet shows all three side by side.

Revenue covers tipping fees per tire, stewardship processing and transportation incentives, coarse and fine crumb, mulch, steel wire and fibre. The model works in any market: it has a stewardship-funded preset built from a published incentive program (Alberta, in CAD), a gate-fee preset (United States, in USD) and a third column for your own market. Each column carries its own currency, tipping fee, incentives, power price, rent, landfill fee, wages and tax. You can also choose to lease an existing building (market rent, fit-out capitalized) or build new. Every preset value is an input you can overwrite.

Two editions

Feasibility Edition: a fast, clear annual model for early screening. It covers the three feedstock routes, three market columns, a lease-or-build building option, a staged process and capital cost build, staffing by role, working capital, debt with interest-only years and level repayments, tax depreciation, three linked statements, returns and a dashboard.
Due Diligence Edition: everything in the Feasibility Edition, plus a development period with development spend, debt sized and sculpted to a target DSCR with no circular references, a debt service reserve account and distribution lock-up, closure security, LLCR and PLCR, four editable scenarios, and 12 live sensitivity cases with breakeven estimates and a tornado chart.

Key outputs

Project IRR (unlevered, after tax), equity IRR, NPV, equity multiple and payback
Senior debt amount and DSCR; binding sizing constraint, LLCR and PLCR in the Due Diligence Edition
Steady-state comparison of the three feedstock routes: revenue, operating cost, EBITDA and pre-tax IRR
Mass balance: crumb, fine crumb, mulch, steel, fibre and residue to landfill
Income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet for every year, with a balance check
Dashboard with revenue by source, EBITDA and net income, CFADS against debt service, debt balance and route comparison charts

Built to modeling best practice

Inputs, calculations and outputs on separate sheets; inputs in blue on yellow, formulas in black
Consistent formulas across every year; start year, inflation and capital cost base year are inputs
Capital cost built by process stage and scaled to plant capacity, plus freight, installation, electrical service, building or fit-out, site works, engineering, owner’s costs and contingency; sustaining capital over the life
Tax depreciation in two pools (buildings and equipment), straight line or declining balance, with losses carried forward
No macros, no circular references, no hidden or protected sheets, no external links
Checks sheet confirms the balance sheet balances, cash never goes negative, debt is repaid, the mass balance closes and selections are valid; warnings flag commercial risks such as reliance on incentives
Contents sheet with links, step-by-step instructions, a glossary and a full source list

Timeline

Annual periods. Up to 3 development years (Due Diligence Edition), 1 to 3 construction years and up to 25 operating years, with a ramp-up over the first two operating years. Product prices, operating and capital costs, and stewardship incentives escalate at separate rates.

Default assumptions

Defaults describe a 5 tonne-per-hour whole tire plant in a leased building, running two shifts, 250 days a year, processing about 15,300 tonnes a year and producing about 10,100 tonnes of crumb. Front-end equipment is calibrated to two OEM shredding line quotations scaled down from 8 tonnes per hour; total capital cost is about CAD 11.9 million (USD 8.5 million) in 2026 prices. Prices, wages, power, rent and tax come from published sources listed in the model. In the stewardship-funded preset the base case returns about 15% unlevered after tax and 19% to equity in the Due Diligence Edition, with incentives close to half of revenue; crumb prices would have to fall about 14%, or incentives about 16%, before project NPV reaches zero. The gate-fee preset at $1.25 per tire and the TDF and mulch routes do not repay their capital at the defaults. The model shows this rather than hiding it, so you can test what tipping fee, crumb price or feedstock price your market needs.

What you get

One Excel workbook (.xlsx) for the edition purchased, built only with functions available since Excel 2010 (no dynamic arrays, no macros)
A free PDF demo showing the main sheets of the Due Diligence Edition

Support and customization

Questions about how the template works are answered by email. Launchwright can also adapt the model to your project, region, lender or investor requirements.

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