5-year Financial Projections, Business Valuation, Cash Flow Projections, Debt Service Coverage, Financial Model, Loans, Mergers and Acquisitions Model, Pro-Forma

Buy an independent pest control company and underwrite it the way an SBA lender actually will. This is a lender-ready acquisition model for a single-branch pest control business, built around the two things a real underwriter tests and a broker quietly overstates: how much of the revenue is a recurring route book you can bank on, and what it costs to replace an owner who runs a route or sells.

A recurring route book and a route-density engine. Revenue is built bottom-up from recurring accounts (residential and commercial) times their average annual value, plus one-time and termite/WDO work. The route-density block makes the operational margin lever explicit — stops per technician per day and revenue per tech — because in pest control density is what moves gross margin. The base case runs about $1.70M revenue, 82% recurring, roughly 11 stops per tech per day and about $155k revenue per technician.

Honesty part one — recurring vs one-time quality. One-time and termite jobs are real money, but they are lumpy, non-contractual, and do not deserve the multiple a sticky recurring route book earns. The model splits SDE into its recurring and one-time halves, prices each at its own multiple, and shows exactly how much a buyer overpays (about $146,920 on the base case) by applying the full recurring multiple to lumpy one-time earnings.

Honesty part two — the owner-operator replacement. In most single-branch companies the owner runs a route or is the top salesperson. If the buyer will not sit in that seat, they must re-hire it. The model deducts that cost to reach Adjusted EBITDA and shows the true DSCR (1.39x on the base case) next to the naive broker-style DSCR (2.41x). The gap is the owner’s own production — what separates a financeable route business from one that looks great on the CIM and gets declined.

What you get: a Recurring Book & Route Density engine; an SDE & valuation sheet with the recurring-vs-one-time quality panel and the owner-operator replacement; a 3-part SBA 7(a) capital stack with a full-standby vs amortizing seller-note toggle; a DSCR & Debt gate with true DSCR, naive DSCR, debt yield, recurring-earnings coverage (2.13x) and a customer-churn down-case DSCR of 0.83x; a 5-year P&L, Returns & Exit and a Dashboard sensitivity grid; a 3-way profile toggle; a 23-page PDF user guide; and a Benchmarks & Sources tab. Machine-verified across three engines (67 automated checks, zero errors). Works in Excel and Google Sheets — no macros. Educational planning tool, not financial or investment advice; verify the seller’s route revenue, retention history and your SBA term sheet before relying on any number.

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