COGS Decomposition, Inflation & Pricing Scenario Excel Model

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Budget, Budgeting, Chart, Controlling, Dashboard, Excel, Financial Analysis, Financial Model, Financial Modeling, Financial modelling, Financial Planning, Financial Reporting, Forecast, Forecasting, KPIs (Key Performance Indicators), Management, Performance Tracking, Pricing, Pricing Analysis, Profitability Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Variance Analysis

Costs are rising. How much pricing do you need to protect profitability?

Knowing that COGS increased is not enough.

Raw materials may rise. FX can move against you. Manufacturing costs can inflate. Mix can change. And even when total fixed manufacturing costs remain stable, lower volumes can push fixed cost per unit higher.

The real questions are:

What is driving the increase? What happens if conditions change again? And how much pricing or productivity do you need to compensate?

The COGS Decomposition, Inflation & Pricing Scenario Excel Model is designed to answer all three.

1 | Understand TODAY — What is driving your COGS?

Compare any two selected periods and decompose unit COGS movement into:

FX | Raw Materials | Other Direct Costs | MOH Inflation | Volume Absorption | Mix

See which factors increased COGS, which helped offset the pressure, and where action is required — instead of stopping at one total cost variance.

2 | Understand the VOLUME effect

Volume can change unit economics even when total fixed costs remain unchanged.

Volume ↓ → Fixed cost per unit ↑
Volume ↑ → Fixed cost per unit ↓

The model isolates this effect, helping you distinguish genuine cost inflation from volume absorption or dilution.

Don’t mistake poor absorption for inflation — or temporary volume benefits for sustainable cost improvement.

3 | Plan TOMORROW — Test what happens next

Change forward-looking assumptions and see the impact on future COGS:

FX changes — what happens?
Raw materials +10% — what is the impact?
Volume falls — how much does fixed cost per unit increase?
Mix changes — what happens to average unit cost?

Use scenarios to understand cost exposure before it hits actual results.

4 | Know how much action you need

Understanding cost pressure is only half the job.

The model helps quantify the pricing and/or productivity required to offset cost increases and protect profitability.

Move the conversation from:

“COGS will increase.”

to:

“This is the expected impact — and this is the pricing or productivity we need to compensate.”

From analysis to management-ready decisions

Linked decomposition views, charts and executive insights turn the analysis into nearly ready-to-use management presentation materials, structured around:

Performance | Drivers | Risks | Opportunities | Actions

Useful for forecasting, budgeting, cost reviews, pricing, RGM, productivity planning and management presentations.

Built for people responsible for cost and profitability

Designed for FP&A, Commercial Finance, Finance Business Partners, RGM, Pricing, Operations, Finance Managers and Business Owners.

What you get

✓ COGS decomposition across any two periods
✓ FX, Raw Material, Other Direct Cost and MOH impacts
✓ Volume absorption / dilution analysis
✓ Mix impact
✓ Forward-looking COGS scenarios
✓ Required pricing / productivity assessment
✓ Automatically updated management visuals
✓ Risks, Opportunities and Actions
✓ Fully editable Excel model with sample data

Don’t just report cost inflation. Decide what to do about it.

Understand TODAY. Model TOMORROW. Quantify the action required to protect profitability.