Financial Model, Renewable Energy, Solar

Cash Flow Analysis, Dashboard, Debt Service Coverage, Excel, Financial Feasibility, IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), Project Finance, Revenue Projections, Scenario Analysis

Most solar models ask you to guess the capture price. This one calculates it hour by hour.

The model includes the full year of 2025 hourly day-ahead prices and the hourly shape of actual solar generation for eight European bidding zones (Germany-Luxembourg, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic and Northern Italy). Pick a zone, enter the plant size and specific yield, and the model values every one of the 8,760 hours of output at the real market price. You see immediately how much of the average power price a solar plant really earns, how many hours fall below zero, and how much energy is lost when the plant switches off at negative prices. In Germany in 2025, for example, solar earned only about 52% of the average price and almost a quarter of solar output was produced in negative-price hours.

What you get

8,760-hour simulation: solar output, grid export limit, curtailment below a price threshold you set, market value per hour
Solar capture price and capture rate, with and without curtailment
Pay-as-produced PPA (share, price, indexation, term) plus merchant tail with route-to-market cost and guarantees of origin
Low / Base / High scenarios (market price trend, capture-rate drift, PV capex)
Module degradation, availability, inverter replacement
Capex build-up (PV, grid connection, development), O&M, insurance, land lease, inflation
Annuity debt with DSCR, corporate tax with loss carry-forward, straight-line depreciation
Project and equity IRR, NPV, payback, minimum and average DSCR, and LCOE
Dashboard with KPIs and charts: monthly output, monthly average price vs capture price, 35-year cash flows
Market comparison of all eight zones: average price, negative hours, solar capture price and capture rate

Who it is for: solar developers screening sites and PPA offers, investors and lenders testing merchant assumptions, consultants, and students learning how negative prices and cannibalisation change solar economics.

Format: Excel (.xlsx), no macros, fully unlocked formulas, colour-coded inputs (blue on yellow). Works in Microsoft Excel and LibreOffice.

Data sources: Energy-Charts.info (Fraunhofer ISE): day-ahead prices (Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de) and public net solar generation, both CC BY 4.0.

Limitations: the hourly solar shape is the national fleet profile, which is smoother than a single plant; 2025 is used as the base year for all future years; intraday and balancing markets are reduced to a route-to-market cost. For planning purposes only, not investment advice.

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