Name: Australia Solar PV Market Study 2026–2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 638135
Availability: InStock

Australia Solar PV Market Study 2026–2031 Demand–Supply Outlook for Developers, IPP Investors, and Corporate Off-takers

A 44-page strategic research report covering Australia’s National Electricity Market and Wholesale Electricity Market. Built for project developers, infrastructure investors, and corporate PPA buyers who need a defensible 2026–2031 demand-and-supply view — calibrated to the AEMO Draft 2026 Integrated System Plan, CSIRO GenCost 2024-25, and the October 2025 Capacity Investment Scheme Tender 4 award data.

Download the market study here:

Pair it with eFinancialModels’ Solar PV model:

Key findings

Australia ended 2025 with ~45 GW of cumulative installed solar PV — ~33% utility-scale (15 GW-AC), ~67% distributed (rooftop + C&I). 2025 calendar-year additions of 6.8 GW were a record (CER, December 2025).
The AEMO Draft 2026 ISP Step Change pathway points to ~92 GW cumulative by 2031, with EFM’s Bear/Base/Bull envelope of 77 / 92 / 102 GW (probabilities 25 / 50 / 25%).
The Capacity Investment Scheme has become the new bankability anchor. CIS Tender 4 (Oct 2025) awarded 6.6 GW including 3.4 GW of solar-plus-storage hybrids and 11.4 GWh of co-located storage; the underwriting floor/ceiling structure has materially de-risked merchant exposure.
NEM solar capture prices are eroding, projected to fall from ~AUD 55–60/MWh in 2025 to ~AUD 35–45/MWh by 2031 in SA, VIC, and NSW. Co-located BESS firming is now the primary mitigation.
Utility-scale LCOE remains the lowest of any new-build technology — CSIRO GenCost 2024-25 anchors AUD 55–85/MWh with a six-hour storage equivalent, central case ~AUD 70/MWh.

Why this study, why now

Australia is at an inflection point. The 2024–2026 policy stack — Capacity Investment Scheme, Solar Sunshot, Future Made in Australia, the REGO scheme, and the AEMO Draft 2026 ISP — collectively re-prices every utility-scale solar PPA written from 2027 onward. State-level mechanisms (NSW REZ scheme, VIC SEC, QLD Energy Roadmap 2025, WA SWIS Transmission Plan) layer on top. Transmission delivery on HumeLink, EnergyConnect, VNI West, Marinus Link, Central-West Orana, and South West REZ corridors is the binding constraint on commissioning pace.

This study answers the questions IPP developers, infrastructure investors, hyperscaler PPA buyers, and financial-modeling teams need answered before committing capital: Where is the 2031 envelope? Which REZ corridors deliver, which slip? How do CIS economics actually work? What does capture-price erosion mean for unhedged merchant projects? How fast does the corporate PPA market deepen as data-centre load arrives?

What’s inside (44 pages)

Executive Summary with 8-bullet Key Findings
§1 Methodology and Scope — including cross-sell to EFM solar PV financial-model templates
§2 The Industry Today — installed capacity 2020–2025 by segment, NEM region mix
§3 Supply-Side Analysis — pipeline funnel (proposed → committed → FID → UC), top-10 developer league table, REZ + transmission unlock by corridor, WEM/SWIS dedicated coverage
§4 Demand-Side Analysis — NEM operational demand FY26 → FY31, data-centre / hyperscaler load, electrification and EV uptake, green-hydrogen demand pull (qualitative, scenario envelope)
§5 Pricing and Cost Dynamics — capture-price erosion by NEM region, corporate PPA market depth and tenor, CIS underwriting tariff economics with worked example, LCOE curve
§6 Three Scenarios — Bear (25%), Base (50%), Bull (25%) — explicit drivers and numerical KPI impacts
§7 Technology and Innovation Trends — TOPCon → HJT, bifacial+tracker, Solar Sunshot manufacturing
§8 Regulatory and Policy Context — full federal stack (CIS, RET sunset, REGO, FMA, Solar Sunshot, Cheaper Home Batteries) + state frameworks (NSW REZ, VIC SEC, QLD Roadmap 2025, WA SWIS) + AEMC ERC0393 GPS overhaul + ERC0410 IDSP
§9 Competitive Landscape — 14 named operators with diversified-share flags where applicable
§10 Best Practices and Innovation Benchmark — Texas ERCOT, Spain, California, Germany comparisons with specific numbers
§11 Risks and Weaknesses — 12-row risk matrix with severity and mitigations
§12 Recommendations — segmented by developer / IPP investor / corporate off-taker / manufacturer
§13 Sources — 30+ verified sources across regulators, industry associations, market-data analysts
§14 Glossary, App A Pricing Assumptions (Base Case + scenario sensitivity), App B Quick-Reference Action Checklist, App C Disclaimer

12 EFM-branded charts. 9+ data tables. Full source verification workbook included.

Data sources

This study draws on AEMO (2024 ISP, Draft 2026 ISP, 2025 ESOO), Clean Energy Regulator (Quarterly Carbon Market Report December 2025), DCCEEW (CIS tender results, Australian Energy Update 2025), CSIRO + AEMO (GenCost 2024-25 Final), Clean Energy Council (Clean Energy Australia 2025), ARENA (Solar Sunshot rounds), EnergyCo NSW (REZ project pages), AEMC (ERC0393, ERC0410), and corroborating analyst coverage from BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy, IEA, IRENA, IBISWorld, and Mordor Intelligence. Material single-source claims are cross-verified against a second independent source; cross-source contradictions are reconciled in the Source Verification workbook.

Who this is for

Independent utility-scale solar developers and IPP investors — primary audience. The study answers pipeline, CIS economics, capture-price, REZ access, transmission, and scenario probability questions.
Corporate energy off-takers (hyperscalers, mining majors, manufacturers) — the PPA market chapter is built specifically for offtake structuring.
Financial-modeling professionals — the LCOE, capture-price, and scenario-sensitivity tables in Appendix A are designed to drop directly into project-level models.
Energy policy staff, consultants, and students — the regulatory and policy chapter is the most comprehensive 18-month sweep available.

Pair this study with an eFinancialModels template

This study provides sector-level context — demand drivers, price forecasts, competitive landscape, scenario probabilities. To build project-level cash flows, pair it with one of the EFM solar PV financial-model templates:

Browse the full Solar — Renewable Energy category for more options. The study informs assumptions; the templates are separate tools.

You must log in to submit a review.