Name: US Data Center Market Study 2026-2031 — Capacity, Power Demand & Forecast
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 654050
Availability: InStock

Market Study USA Data Centres | eFinancialModels

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The US data center market is now gated by power, not demand

The United States enters 2026 with more than 50 GW of operational data center capacity, record-low colocation vacancy, and hundreds of billions of dollars of hyperscaler capital committed to AI infrastructure. Yet the industry cannot build fast enough — because the binding constraint has moved from land and capital to electricity. This study explains what that shift means for anyone building, financing, or modeling US data center assets over the next six years.

Written for financial-modeling professionals first, it converts the market’s headline numbers into assumption-ready inputs: energization timing, power cost and escalation, PUE, utilization ramp, and a three-scenario demand envelope for 2031.

What you get

A 30+ page, chart-rich Word study (12 branded charts, 13 data tables)
A source-verification workbook mapping every figure to a live, cited source
Three quantified 2031 scenarios (Bear / Base / Bull) with probabilities
A Base Case pricing-and-assumptions appendix built for financial models
Coverage of the power and grid constraint that most market reports treat as a footnote

Key findings

Power is the binding constraint. Interconnection queues exceed 1,500 GW, energization runs 3-7 years, and PJM capacity prices have risen roughly tenfold to USD 329.17 per MW-day.
AI is the marginal megawatt. Accelerated compute moves from about 30% of data center power demand in 2025 toward roughly 55% by 2031 in the Base Case.
Supply is record-high yet effectively sold out. Primary-market supply rose 36% to 9,432 MW in 2025, with vacancy at 1.4% and about 92% of construction precommitted.
Capital is abundant; the bottleneck is physical. Big Four hyperscaler capex reaches roughly USD 600-630 billion in 2026.
Behind-the-meter and nuclear go mainstream. Over 10 GW of nuclear PPAs and on-site gas bridge the grid gap in the Base Case power mix.
2031 demand spans 420-790 TWh across the scenario range — determined primarily by whether power supply keeps pace with signed load.

Who it is for

Financial-modeling professionals and analysts; data center developers; infrastructure, private-equity and REIT investors; and utility and power-sector strategists tracking large-load growth.

Data sources

Built on primary regulator and system-operator data (FERC, PJM), the leading brokerage trackers (CBRE, JLL), national-laboratory and research bodies (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, EPRI, Grid Strategies), and investment-bank and consultancy outlooks (Goldman Sachs, S&P Global). Every chart and table carries a specific source line; forward-looking figures are labeled eFinancialModels Base Case projections.

Methodology

eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research, source verification and editorial review. Every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified before publication. Regulatory instruments are cited by name — for example, the December 2025 FERC order on PJM co-location and the March 2026 Ratepayer Protection Pledge. Cross-references within the study use “Section N” notation (see Section 6 for the scenarios and Section 12 for recommendations).

Pair it with a model

This study provides the sector context — demand drivers, power-cost dynamics, competitive landscape, and scenarios. To build project-level cash flows, pair it with a data center or power-project financial model template from eFinancialModels.

Data Center Financial Model templates: https://www.efinancialmodels.com/downloads/industry/data-center/
Energy / Power Project models: https://www.efinancialmodels.com/downloads/industry/energy/

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