Name: China Solar PV Market Study 2026–2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 638155
Availability: InStock

Utility-Scale · Manufacturing Supply Chain · Scenario Analysis

A 39-page evidence-based outlook on the world’s largest solar PV market — 1.2 TW of installed capacity at end-2025, 315 GW added in 2025 alone, and a manufacturing footprint that supplies 80%+ of every supply-chain stage globally. Written for global IPP investors, supply-chain managers, and financial modelers building Chinese PV exposure or sourcing diversification.

What you get

39-page market study (PDF + editable Word) covering 12 sections plus three appendices — methodology, industry today, supply, demand, pricing, three scenarios, technology, regulatory, competitive landscape, best practices, risks, and recommendations.
12 EFM-branded charts as standalone PNGs (1,500 px wide) — capacity trajectory, additions, provincial concentration, manufacturing share, module ASP + polysilicon, top-10 module makers, regional curtailment, export destinations, US AD/CVD tariff stack, three scenarios, cell technology mix, LCOE trajectory.
Source verification workbook (.xlsx) — 41 verified sources, 35 inline facts catalogued, 12 competitor benchmarks, 9 headline-number reconciliation table, 16 regulatory instruments register.
Verbatim AI-tools disclosure + standard disclaimer baked into every shipped deliverable.

Key findings

Document 136 has fragmented provincial implementation. As of mid-October 2025, only 18 of 31 Chinese provinces had finalized implementing plans for the February-2025 marketization reform; 10 were in draft; Jiangsu, Tianjin, and Tibet remain undecided. The reform replaces feed-in tariffs with a provincial sustainable mechanism price (SMP) cleared via contract-for-difference auction — and reshapes every project-level pro forma for new builds from 1 June 2025 onward.

The August 2025 polysilicon anti-involution fund is starting to bite. Six of the largest polysilicon producers (Tongwei, Daqo, GCL, Xinte, East Hope, plus one undisclosed) committed CNY 50 billion to retire approximately 1 million tonnes of low-quality capacity. Polysilicon spot prices rebounded 74% from the June 2025 low of RMB 34,000/t to RMB 59,200/t by January 2026. Manufacturer margin recovery is partial through 2027.

SE-Asia transshipment to the US is closed. US Department of Commerce final AD/CVD determinations on 21 April 2025 imposed tariffs of 3,521% on Cambodian, 375% on Thai (Trina), 271% on Vietnamese (Jinko), and 41.56% on Malaysian (Jinko) module producers. Chinese makers are pivoting to Laos and Indonesia, but neither has scale to absorb 2025 export volumes through 2027.

Curtailment displaces volume as the binding utility-scale risk. National solar curtailment rose to 6.6% in H1 2025 from 3.9% in 2024; Northwest grid hit 12.5%; Qinghai 15.2%; Tibet 33.9%. The 350 GW additional UHV transmission in the 15th Five-Year Plan is the central mitigation — Base Case assumes alignment by 2028–2029.

Three scenarios (probability-weighted)

Scenario	Probability	End-2031 capacity	Top-4 mfg gross margin 2028	NW utility-scale equity IRR (real, post-tax)
Bear	25%	1,980 GW	3–6%	7–9%
Base	55%	2,250 GW	12–18%	10–12%
Bull	20%	2,540 GW	20–28%	13–16%

Probabilities reflect eFinancialModels senior-analyst judgment grounded in the intake-protocol evidence — Document 136 provincial implementation pace, anti-involution fund execution, US/EU/India trade trajectory, RMB/USD, and demand-pillar strength. They are not outputs of a statistical model.

Data sources

Primary: NEA, NDRC, MIIT, CPIA, State Grid + China Southern Power Grid. Analyst benchmarks: IEA (Renewables 2025, Solar PV Global Supply Chains), BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, InfoLink Consulting, Bernreuter Research, TaiyangNews, Rystad Energy, DNV, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Corporate disclosures: JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, Trinasolar, Tongwei, GCL Technology, Three Gorges Renewables, State Power Investment Corporation. Regulatory text: Document 136, NDRC + NEA storage-mandate rescission, US Commerce final AD/CVD determinations, UFLPA Entity List, EU CBAM regulation, India MNRE ALMM. Total: 41 verified sources catalogued in the source-verification workbook companion file.

Audience

Primary — global IPP and project-developer investors evaluating Chinese utility-scale assets, joint ventures, off-take exposure, or supply-chain dependency on Chinese-sourced equipment.
Secondary — module / equipment buyers and supply-chain managers conducting UFLPA / CBAM compliance and sourcing diversification programs at Western utilities, EPCs, corporate off-takers.
Tertiary — financial modelers, corporate strategy teams at integrated energy companies, policy / trade analysts at multilateral institutions.

Methodology

This study follows the eFinancialModels Market Study Production Methodology (v2.1). Every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified by the eFinancialModels editorial team before publication. AI-assisted research and drafting tools are used to accelerate research and drafting; we do not publish unverified content. Forward-looking statements are explicitly labelled and reflect senior-analyst judgment grounded in the intake-protocol evidence — not statistical model outputs.

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Disclaimer

This market study is provided by eFinancialModels for general informational, educational, and strategic-planning purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Forward-looking statements reflect the authors’ analysis of publicly available information at the time of writing and are subject to material uncertainty. Readers must conduct their own due diligence. © 2026 eFinancialModels.

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