Name: USA Multifamily & Build-to-Rent Market Study 2026-2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 640944
Availability: InStock

Why this study

The US rental-housing market is at an inflection point. A record supply wave in 2024-2025 pushed vacancy to ~8.2% and flattened rents – and now deliveries are falling off a cliff, down to roughly 350k-440k units in 2026, the lowest since around 2014. This study gives financial modelers and investors a complete, sourced assumption set for underwriting US multifamily and build-to-rent over 2026-2031, integrating both segments in one document.

What you get

A 34-page Word/PDF study with 12 EFM-branded charts and 11 data tables.
The supply-cliff narrative: completions from the 2024 peak through the 2026 trough and the absorption inflection.
Rent-growth and vacancy forecasts (national and by region) with a 2026-2031 base case.
Cap-rate and valuation analysis against the 10-year Treasury, plus an equity-IRR sensitivity to rent growth and exit cap.
The 2026 debt-maturity wall (~US$162bn multifamily) and FHFA’s raised Fannie/Freddie purchase caps (US$176bn).
A dedicated build-to-rent and single-family-rental track: institutional capital, starts, occupancy, rents, and operators.
Three scenarios to 2031 (Bear 25% / Base 50% / Bull 25%) with explicit rent-growth and vacancy outcomes.
Regulation that reshapes the operating model: the DOJ-RealPage settlement, statewide rent control, and LIHTC expansion.

Key findings

The 2026-2027 supply cliff – not demand – is the defining feature; absorption sustainably overtakes deliveries from the second half of 2026.
Capital-market stress is the dominant near-term risk, concentrated in 2021-2022 value-add deals facing the maturity wall.
Build-to-rent has moved from niche to institutional asset class and is the segment’s clearest secular growth.
Policy (RealPage, rent control, LIHTC) now shapes the operating model as much as the macro cycle.

Who it is for

Financial modelers and project-finance analysts (primary); multifamily and BTR investors and developers; lenders and credit investors; corporate strategy teams; and students of the sector.

Methodology and sources

Built from CBRE, PwC/ULI, RealPage, Yardi Matrix, NMHC, NAA, John Burns Research & Consulting, the US Census Bureau, the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, MSCI, and company filings. eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research, source verification, and editorial review; every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified before publication. Forward-looking statements are labeled and reflect analyst judgment.

Pair it with a template

Translate the findings into property-level cash flows with the real estate financial model templates at eFinancialModels.com: https://www.efinancialmodels.com/real-estate-financial-model-templates/

This study is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Conduct your own due diligence.

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