Name: USA Hospitality Market Study 2026-2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 642256
Availability: InStock

Why this study

US lodging has entered a low-growth, high-cost equilibrium. In 2025, occupancy and RevPAR fell year over year for the first time since 2020 even as rate kept rising, while hotel labor cost per occupied room jumped about 12.8%. This study tells financial modelers, developers, and investors who keeps the growth — and why the leanest-cost segments win.

What you get

A 32-page Word and PDF market study with 12 EFM-branded charts and 11 data tables.
An integrated view of both branded full-service and extended-stay hotels — most reports cover only one.
A modeler’s base-case assumption set: occupancy and RevPAR paths, segment GOP margins, labor cost per occupied room, cap rates, and refinancing terms.
Three scenarios to 2031 with explicit RevPAR, occupancy, ADR, and cap-rate outcomes.
A source-verification workbook with every figure cited and checked.

Key findings

2025 was the first occupancy and RevPAR decline since 2020 (occupancy ~62.3%, ADR ~$160.54, RevPAR ~$100.02); 2026 RevPAR growth is forecast at roughly 0.6% to 0.9% — rate-led, not occupancy-led.
Extended-stay is the fastest-growing US lodging segment — over 611,000 rooms (more than 10% of supply) and about 40% of the construction pipeline by project count, with the lowest labor hours per occupied room (~1.30) and the highest operating margins.
Supply is disciplined — about 1.5% to 1.6% growth, with only ~132,000 of ~706,000 pipeline rooms actually under construction, supporting in-place owners.
The capital-markets risk is concentrated — roughly $48 billion of hotel CMBS matures across 2025 to 2026, with ~80% of the 2025 conduit pool showing refinancing stress at 6.25% to 7%+ debt costs.
Regulation now shapes the operating model — the FTC fee-transparency rule (effective May 12, 2025), immigration enforcement, and local wage floors all bear directly on rate and labor cost.

Who it’s for

Financial modelers and investment analysts (primary); hotel developers, owners, and REIT/PE investors; lenders; and brand and operator strategy teams.

Methodology

Built from STR/CoStar and Tourism Economics, CBRE Hotel Horizons, PwC, Lodging Econometrics, HVS, AHLA, Grand View Research, Matthews/MMCG, and company filings. Every claim, statistic, source, and chart was reviewed and verified by the eFinancialModels editorial team. Forward-looking figures for 2026 to 2031 are eFinancialModels Base Case projections and are labeled as such. eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research and editorial review; we do not publish unverified content.

Pair it with a template

Translate the findings into property-level cash flows with the eFinancialModels hotel financial model templates (acquisition, development, and extended-stay/select-service variants): https://www.efinancialmodels.com/downloads/category/financial-model/health-care/

Disclaimer

For informational and educational purposes only; not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Forward-looking statements are subject to material uncertainty. Conduct your own due diligence.

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