Name: Spain Residential & Costa Holiday-Rental (STR) Market Study 2026-2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 642167
Availability: InStock

Coastal Spanish town and marina as a hero image for a Spain Real Estate Market Study (2026–2031) with dark overlay text.

Why this study

Spain’s housing market is in its strongest run since before 2008. Prices rose about 12.7 percent in 2025 – the biggest jump since 2007 – on roughly 714,000 sales, the most in eighteen years, while foreign buyers hit a record 13.8 percent of purchases and the cheapest mortgages in three years revived domestic demand. At the same time, the Costa-region holiday-rental market is being reshaped by the most aggressive short-term-rental clampdown in Europe: a national registry from July 2025, Barcelona’s full phase-out of tourist flats by 2028, and a wave of regional freezes and caps. This study gives financial modelers and investors a complete, sourced assumption set for underwriting Spanish residential and holiday-rental assets over 2026-2031, integrating both pillars in one document.

What you get

A 36-page Word/PDF study with 13 EFM-branded charts and 11 data tables.
House prices and transactions by region, with 2026-2031 base-case projections.
The supply deficit – household formation vs permits and completions – and where it concentrates.
Foreign demand: the record 13.8 percent buyer share, the leading nationalities, the golden-visa repeal, and the proposed non-EU buyer tax.
Mortgage finance: Euribor and new fixed/variable rates, and the gross rental yield by city.
The short-term-rental clampdown mapped market by market: the national registry, Barcelona’s 2028 phase-out, and the Malaga, Alicante, Balearic, and Canary caps.
Three scenarios to 2031 (Bear 25% / Base 50% / Bull 25%) with explicit price-growth and STR-stock outcomes.

Key findings

Scarcity, not speculation, is driving prices: a structural deficit near 734,000 homes is the durable demand floor beneath every forecast.
Cheaper finance (Euribor down to ~2.3%) and record foreign demand are the two accelerants on top of the deficit.
The holiday-rental clampdown is the single most important regulatory shift for coastal markets – in restricted markets, the licence has become the scarce asset.
Yields have compressed as values outran rents; the geography of return has shifted to secondary cities and the Costa Blanca, while prime coastal and capital markets price tighter.

Who it is for

Financial modelers and project-finance analysts (primary); residential developers, holiday-rental operators and managers, and institutional and private investors; lenders; estate agents and relocation buyers; and students of the sector.

Methodology and sources

Built from INE (Housing Price Index, transactions, FRONTUR tourism), the Bank of Spain, CaixaBank and BBVA Research, the Colegio de Registradores, Tinsa, idealista, and Knight Frank/Savills/CBRE Spain research, plus official and legal sources for the STR registry, the Barcelona phase-out, and the golden-visa repeal. eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research, source verification, and editorial review; every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified before publication. Forward-looking statements are labeled and reflect analyst judgment.

Pair it with a template

Translate the findings into property-level cash flows with the real estate financial model templates at eFinancialModels.com: https://www.efinancialmodels.com/real-estate-financial-model-templates/ – including rental/buy-to-let and short-term/holiday-rental models.

This study is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Conduct your own due diligence.

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