Name: Chile Copper & Lithium Mining Market Study 2026–2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 641156
Availability: InStock

The decisive supplier of the electrification metals

Chile is the only country that pairs global leadership in both copper and lithium. It mines roughly a quarter of the world’s copper and holds the largest copper reserves, and it produces the world’s second-largest lithium volume from the Salar de Atacama — the highest-grade, lowest-cost brine on Earth — while holding the largest lithium reserves. This study gives financial modellers and investors a complete, sourced assumption set for both metals through 2031, built to a strict editorial and source-verification bar.

What you get

A 35-page Word/PDF market study covering copper and lithium with equal analytical depth.
12 EFM-branded charts: production trajectories, the copper price record and lithium price whipsaw, cost and royalty stacks, demand by end-use, IRR sensitivity, three scenarios, and the NovaAndino state-margin shift.
9 data tables, including a top-operator landscape, a project pipeline, a scenario summary, a risk matrix, and base-case pricing assumptions.
An Excel source-verification workbook mapping every source, a competitive coverage map, and a headline-number reconciliation.

Key findings

Chilean copper through 2031 is a price-levered, grade-eroding, cost-rising story, not a volume-growth story: output oscillates in a 5.4–6.0 Mt band even as the LME price holds an elevated regime after the January 2026 record near US$14,527 per tonne.
Codelco is the swing producer, working to restore 1.7 Mt per year by 2030 from a 25-year low through a US$40-billion-plus structural-project programme, against safety and seismic risk underscored by the July 2025 El Teniente collapse.
Lithium economics pivot on a hard 2031 discontinuity: the Codelco–SQM NovaAndino joint venture, sealed in December 2025, secures the Salar de Atacama to 2060 and shifts up to 85% of operating margin to the state from 2031.
The lithium price whipsaw — a 2022 peak near US$60,000–80,000 per tonne, a 2024–2025 trough near US$9,000–15,000, and a 2026 spot spike toward US$20,000–28,000 — must be modelled as a range, never a single point.
Policy and non-price risk dominate the downside: the Royalty Law (Ley 21.591) caps the effective tax burden at 46.5% for large copper producers; water scarcity is forcing a costly shift to desalination; and permitting and indigenous-consultation risk is decisive, as the May 2026 Collahuasi permit revocation showed.

Who it is for

Financial modellers and project-finance analysts building Chilean copper or lithium asset models; mining investors and developers; and corporate strategy and offtake teams tracking the Chilean competitive landscape.

Data sources and methodology

Built from Cochilco, USGS, the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook, company filings (Codelco, BHP, Antofagasta plc, Teck, Anglo American, Glencore, Lundin, SQM, Albemarle), LME and Benchmark/Fastmarkets price data, and primary legal analyses of Ley 21.591 and Ley 21.770. Forward-looking figures are eFinancialModels Base Case projections, labelled throughout. See Section 13 of the study for full sources. (Regulatory references use “Section” and “Article” naming throughout this description.)

Pair it with a template

Turn the study’s demand, price, cost, royalty, and scenario assumptions into project cash flows with the mining financial model templates at eFinancialModels.com:
https://www.efinancialmodels.com/downloads/category/financial-model/mining/

This study is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Conduct your own due diligence.

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