Name: DR Congo Copper & Cobalt Mining Market Study 2026–2031
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 641116
Availability: InStock

The Democratic Republic of the Congo supplies roughly 74% of the world’s mined cobalt and around 11% of its copper — and in 2025 it began actively managing the cobalt market through export quotas. This 31-page market study gives financial modellers and investors a complete, source-verified assumption set for both metals over 2026–2031: production trajectories, the operator landscape, copper and cobalt price decks, the 2018 Mining Code fiscal stack, the ARECOMS export-quota mechanics, artisanal-mining dynamics, export-corridor logistics, and three probability-weighted scenarios to 2031.

Why this study

Two metals, one envelope. Copper and cobalt are co-produced on the Katanga–Kolwezi belt. The study models them as linked but distinct cash-flow streams — the only way to value DRC assets correctly.
The cobalt quota changes everything. After cobalt fell below 10 US dollars per pound in 2024, the DRC banned exports in February 2025 and then imposed a quota — 18,125 tonnes for the rest of 2025 and 96,600 tonnes for 2026, through at least 2027. Cobalt revenue is now a policy variable, and the study shows how to model it.
Copper is a rare volume-and-price growth story. CMOC is pushing toward 1 million tonnes by 2028 and Kamoa-Kakula is world-class, into a copper market at record prices and a widening deficit.
Built for modellers. Explicit price decks, a fiscal stack, an IRR sensitivity, and a scenario table feed straight into a project DCF.

Key findings (preview)

DRC copper output rose about 12.6% to roughly 3.3 million tonnes in 2024; cobalt was roughly 220 kilotonnes, about 74% of world supply (sources range 70–80%).
The 2026 cobalt export quota of 96,600 tonnes sits well below 2024 mine output, flipping the global balance toward deficit; cobalt metal recovered to roughly 50,000–53,000 US dollars per tonne by end-2025.
Chinese operators control most output; Glencore, Ivanhoe and ERG hold the main non-Chinese positions; the state takes a 10% strategic-mineral cobalt royalty and a 10% free-carried interest.
Base case at 2031: 5.35 million tonnes of copper and 225 kilotonnes of cobalt (Bear 4.55 Mt / 170 kt; Bull 6.30 Mt / 290 kt).

What’s inside

Executive Summary and Key Findings
Section 1 Methodology and Scope · Section 2 The Industry Today · Section 3 Supply-Side (incl. artisanal mining and logistics)
Section 4 Demand-Side · Section 5 Pricing and Cost Dynamics (co-product economics, quota mechanics)
Section 6 Three Scenarios to 2031 · Section 7 Technology · Section 8 Regulatory and Policy
Section 9 Competitive Landscape · Section 10 Best Practices · Section 11 Risks · Section 12 Recommendations
Section 13 Sources (37+ cited) · Section 14 Glossary · Appendices A–C
12 EFM-branded charts and 11+ data tables

Data sources

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, Cobalt Institute Market Report 2024, IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Fastmarkets, company reports (CMOC, Ivanhoe, Glencore, MMG, ERG, Gécamines), the 2018 Mining Code (Law 18/001), ARECOMS notices, World Bank, OECD, and the Atlantic Council. Every claim was reviewed and verified by the eFinancialModels editorial team.

Who it’s for

Financial modellers and consultants building project DCFs and market models; mining investors, private-equity and royalty/streaming funds; battery-supply-chain and off-take buyers; developers and analysts.

Methodology and AI disclosure

eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research, source verification and editorial review. Every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified before publication. Forward-looking statements are labelled and reflect analyst judgment.

Pair it with a template

Translate the study into project-level analysis with an eFinancialModels mining template:

The study informs your assumptions; the template provides the project-level cash-flow mechanics.

Download the full 32-page study (PDF)

Disclaimer

This study is for informational and strategic-planning purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Forward-looking statements are subject to material uncertainty; conduct your own due diligence. © 2026 eFinancialModels.

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