Name: Indonesia Mining Market Study 2026-2031 — Nickel, Tin & Coal (EV-Battery Supply Chain)
Brand: eFinancialModels
SKU: 641098
Availability: InStock

Cover image of an Indonesian mining site with terraced red earth and heavy machinery, overlaid with 'Indonesia Mining Market Study 2026-2031'

Why this study

Indonesia is the world’s #1 nickel producer (about two-thirds of global supply), #2 in tin and the largest tin exporter, and the largest thermal-coal exporter — the indispensable upstream of the EV-battery supply chain. This study gives financial modelers and investors a complete, sourced assumption set for valuing an Indonesian nickel (RKEF or HPAL), tin, or coal asset over 2026-2031, including the policy and market-access overlays that now drive returns.

What you get

A 35-page Word/PDF study with 12 EFM-branded charts and 11 data tables.
USGS 2026 nickel and tin baselines, IEA coal data, and the INSG nickel balance.
An LME nickel price outlook (2025 actual plus 2026 bank consensus and a 2026-2031 base case with scenario band), plus tin and coal price decks.
The Class-1 transition mapped: RKEF NPI versus HPAL MHP versus matte, and the roughly doubling of MHP capacity to around 860,000 tonnes per year in 2026.
The 2025 policy stack: the progressive 14-19% nickel-ore royalty, the RKAB quota cut, the 100% twelve-month FX-retention rule, and the fourth Mining Law amendment.
The FEOC and EU market-access overlay — why Chinese-owned, coal-powered nickel can be excluded from Western battery markets, and what unlocks the premium channel.
Three scenarios to 2031 (Bear 30% / Base 45% / Bull 25%) with explicit nickel output and price outcomes.

Key findings

Indonesia mined about 2.6 Mt of nickel, 61 kt of tin, and 755 Mt of coal in 2025; it holds the world’s largest nickel and tin reserves.
Nickel is a route-specific, policy-levered, oversupplied story — reserves are ample; price formation, the Class-1 ramp, and market access are the constraints.
Captive coal power makes Indonesian nickel cheap but carbon-intensive, exposing it to FEOC and EU sourcing rules that can shut it out of premium markets.
Tin is structurally tight and high-priced on Indonesian supply disruption; coal is a declining-export, secure-captive-floor story.

Who it is for

Financial modelers and project-finance analysts (primary); mining and battery-supply-chain investors and developers; corporate strategy, offtake, and policy teams; and students of the sector.

Methodology and sources

Built from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, the IEA, the INSG, Argus, S&P Global, Fastmarkets, Ember, the International Tin Association, and company filings. eFinancialModels uses AI-assisted research and drafting tools alongside human research, source verification, and editorial review; every claim, statistic, source, chart, and recommendation was reviewed and verified before publication. Forward-looking statements are labeled and reflect analyst judgment.

Pair it with a template

Translate the findings into project-level cash flows with the mining financial model templates at eFinancialModels.com: https://www.efinancialmodels.com/downloads/category/financial-model/mining/

This study is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Conduct your own due diligence.

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